What the public record shows
Two kinds of record appear on our Results page. Read each on its own terms.
Confirmed horse outcomes
Published research is followed by the horse’s confirmed result. DID NOT WIN means the horse was beaten; WON means it won. Original assessments and frozen Reference Odds remain unchanged.
Research outcomes do not enter the historical tracker’s bank or P/L calculations.
Published PLAY selections
The earlier record counts final public PLAY rows, with lay wins, lay losses, voids and settled strike rate. The visible Google tracker supplies the shared bank and P/L figures.
These figures model the tracker record and manual stake overrides; they do not confirm that every suggested bet was placed.
Historical record at a glance
From 2 May 2026- Published picks
- 1,400
- Settled lays
- 1,375
- Lay wins
- 1,190
- Lay losses
- 185
- Voids / non-runners
- 25
- Strike rate
- 86.5%
Record data updated through 23 October 2026.
Inspect the full public recordOutcomes and counting rules
For a lay, a beaten horse is the favourable result. A horse that wins is the downside outcome.
The horse was beaten
Shown as a lay win in the historical betting record.
The horse won the race
Shown as a lay loss in the historical betting record.
How the historical record counts each status
- Lay win
- The selected horse did not win.
Included in settled strike rate and historical P/L.
- Lay loss
- The selected horse won.
Included in settled strike rate and historical P/L.
- Void / non-runner
- The selection was void or did not run.
Visible in the record; excluded from settled strike rate. Zero P/L.
- Pending / review
- A clean, confirmed result is not yet available.
Excluded from settled totals until resolved.
- SKIP
- No final historical lay recommendation was published.
Excluded from the published betting record.
Voids and non-runners remain visible. Excluding them from settled strike rate does not erase them from the archive.
Strike rate is only part of the picture
Strike rate describes how often a settled historical lay selection did not win its race.
The calculation
Lay wins ÷ (lay wins + lay losses) × 100In the current historical record: 1,190 ÷ 1,375 = 86.5%.
Why liability matters
Losses depend on odds as well as stake. A high strike rate can still produce a losing financial record.
Check lay liabilityIllustrative example · before commission
- Lay stake
- £2
- Decimal odds
- 6.0
- If the horse is beaten
- +£2
- If the horse wins
- −£10
Liability = £2 × (6.0 − 1). Commission and your actual matched odds affect your own result.
Reference prices and settlement
Published prices provide context
Published lay odds are the historical reference price. Your personal bet P/L uses your actual matched odds and stake. New research retains its frozen Reference Odds as published context.
A later odds move does not cancel a published PLAY
A historical published PLAY settles from the race result, even if its lay odds fall by 50% or more. Price movement cannot undo an already matched bet.
Example: a published price of 6.0 later falls to 3.0. The selection still records a lay win if the horse is beaten, or a lay loss if it wins.
Follow the numbers back to the record
Read individual selections alongside the monthly totals. Explained voids and losses are part of that history.
Common questions
How does Lay Picks calculate lay betting strike rate?
Historical strike rate is lay wins divided by lay wins plus lay losses. Only settled public PLAY recommendations enter this calculation. Voids, non-runners, SKIPs, pending rows and review-needed rows are excluded.
What counts as a lay win?
A lay win means the selected horse did not win the race. The horse can place or finish unplaced; the lay result depends on whether it wins.
What counts as a lay loss?
A lay loss means the selected horse won the race. The downside depends on the lay odds and liability, not just the stake.
Are research outcomes the same as betting profit and loss?
No. Current research outcomes describe the horse's confirmed result: DID NOT WIN, WON, VOID or Pending. Original research assessments and frozen Reference Odds remain unchanged. These outcomes do not feed the historical tracker bank or profit-and-loss calculations.
Are non-runners and voids included in strike rate?
No. Voids and non-runners remain visible in the record but are excluded from settled strike rate and contribute no profit or loss. Pending or review-needed rows are excluded until a clean result is known.
Does a 50% odds drop void a published selection?
No. The automatic price-drop VOID rule was retired on 7 September 2026. Published PLAYs remain on the record and settle from the race result. Personal bet profit or loss uses your actual matched odds. Historical voids remain documented under the rules that applied at the time unless explicitly corrected.